施工実績

The emission trends for air pollutants are determined by three factors: the change in driving forces (fossil-fuel use, fertilizer use), the assumed air pollution control policy, and the assumed climate policy (as the last induces changes in energy consumption leading to changes (generally reductions) in air polluting emissions). We have illustrated the trends in air pollutants by looking at SO_dos and NO_x (Fig. 7). In general, similar trends can be seen for other air pollutants.

RCP6 and you can RCP4

Emissions of SO₂ and NO_x across the RCPs. Grey area indicates the 90th percentile of the literature (only scenarios included in Van Vuuren et al. 2008b, i.e. 22 scenarios; the scenarios were also harmonized for their starting year-but using a different inventory). Dotted lines indicate SRES scenarios. The different studies use slightly different data for the start year

All RCPs include the assumption that air pollution control becomes more stringent, over time, as a result of rising income levels. Globally, this would cause emissions to decrease, over time-although trends can be different for specific regions or at particular moments in time. A second factor that influences the results across the RCPs is climate policy. In general, the lowest emissions are found for the scenario with the most stringent climate policy (RCP2.6) and the highest for the scenario without climate policy (RCP8.5), although this does not apply to all regions, at all times. The overall correlation is a result of the fact that climate policy induces systemic changes in the energy system, away from technologies with high greenhouse gas emission levels, which also have high emissions of air pollutants (e.g. coal use without CCS has high emission levels of CO_dos, but also of SO₂). In contrast, the application of energy efficiency or use of renewables reduces both greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants. The range of air pollution projections, generally, is smaller than that found in the literature. This is mostly due to the RCPs’ shared assumption of stringent air pollution policies increasing proportionally with income (van Ruijven et al. 2008). As such, one may conclude that the RCPs show a range of plausible development pathways for air pollutants and policy interventions, but they are not fully representative of the literature on air polluting emissions, as the set does not include scenarios which assume that very little or no reduction of emissions will be achieved. This may limit the use of the RCPs for specific air pollution applications.

The new pollutants throughout the RCPs was indeed downscaled so you can 0.5° ? 0.5° grids per markets (Masui mais aussi al. 2011; Riahi mais aussi al. 2011; Thomson et al. 2011; Van Vuuren et al. 2011a)-allowing its use in atmospheric environment and chemistry activities (Fig. 8). The results reveal that for the majority smoke, emissions is actually focused during the certain areas (e.g. Eastern All of us, West European countries, Eastern China and you will Asia). Additionally, a standard trend are detailed all over all RCPs and you may gases, showing one to emissions usually end up being relatively far more focused during the already low-earnings places.

Density regarding carbon dioxide

The greenhouse gas concentrations in the RCPs closely correspond to the emissions trends discussed earlier (Fig. 9). For CO₂, RCP8.5 follows the upper range in the literature (rapidly increasing concentrations). 5 show a stabilizing CO₂ concentration (close to the median range in the literature). Finally, RCP2.6 has a peak in CO₂ concentrations around 2050, followed by a modest CO₂, by the end of the century. For CH₄ and N₂O, the order in which the RCPs can be placed are also a direct result of the assumed level of climate policy. The trends in CH₄ concentrations are more pronounced, as a result of the relatively short lifetime of CH₄. Emission reductions, as in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, therefore, may lead to an emission peak much earlier in the century. For N₂O, in contrast, a relatively long lifetime and a modest reduction potential imply an increase in concentrations, in all RCPs. For both CH₄ and N₂O, the concentration levels correspond well with the range in the literature. Further information on the calculations of concentration can be found in Meinshausen et al. (2011b)